新兴市场投资风险和机遇调研

新兴市场投资风险和机遇调研

适合学习或对风险管理/市场分析/商业分析/投资等学科感兴趣的学生
有意提高自身知识水平和学术能力的学生
有留学意向、参与自主招生选拔、跨专业深造或计划考取名校的学生 
通过获得教授私人推荐信和在学术期刊上发表论文来提升个人竞争力
通过教授及助教指导撰写个人科研报告,提升留学申请文书质量及英文论文撰写能力
对海外名校课堂感兴趣或已收到海外大学录取信,想提前跨越中外学制鸿沟的准留学生


项目收获

❶获得指导教授的学术推荐信(教授用学校正式 edu 邮箱网推)
❷系统科学的指导和训练学生进行学术文章写作和发表(国际 CPCI/EI 会议论文)
❸全英文语境展开项目,突破自我,助力 GT 考试、申请面试和未来学习
❹不出国门跟随海外名校教授学习,节省国际旅费
❺获得高质量英文个人科研报告,可在申请材料中提交

导师介绍

prof.leven

杜克大学经济学教授

联邦储备银行经济学家
曾任摩根斯坦利执行理事
曾任摩根大通副总裁
曾任雷曼兄弟高级副总裁
WR Grace. Inc 高级国际经济学家

曾发表多篇极具影响力的论文,并被多次引用.

任职大学

杜克大学( Duke University ),创建于 1838 年,坐落于美国北卡罗来纳州(North Carolina)的达勒姆(Durham),是一所世界顶级的研究型大学。杜克大学是全美最优秀的大学之一,也是美国南部最好的私立大学,在各类排行榜上长期位居美国前十、世界前二十,其商学院、法学院和医学院排名均位列美国前十。

课程安排

Schedule Topics
01/30 Orientation, Opening Ceremony, Welcome Dinner
         报到、开营仪式、欢迎晚宴
01/31 Defining Emerging Market Universe and Picking the Winners
         定义新兴市场,并分析表现优异的新兴市场
02/01 The Government as an Agent of Change
         政府作为变革的主导者
02/02 Institutional Quality and Growth
         机构素质与成长
02/03 Overview of the Tiers of Risk and Managing Sovereign Debt Exposure
         风险分级与主权债券敞口管理概述
02/04 Local Currency Portfolio Investing
         当地货币资产组合投资
02/05 Proxying Emerging Market Exposure in the Global Market Place
         在全球市场中新兴市场敞口代理
02/06 Anticipating Emerging Market Crises and Knowing When to Step In
         预见新兴市场危机,了解进入时机
02/07 Evaluation&Final Presentation
         测评及项目展示
不出国门,就可以跟随海外名校教授进行学术研究,既为学生及其家庭节省了国际旅费又避免了时差等不适应性。
海外名校现职教授全程授课并指导科研
导师均为海外名校现职教授/终身教授,具有丰富的学术和科研经验,教授将根据中国学生特点设计课题,学术性与趣味性兼备,让学员在学术框架下,充分发挥想象力和创造力,从开题、文献检索、科研报告撰写、修改等多个环节进行学习,实现理论与实践的融会贯通。
专业 TA/RA 助教全程辅助
助教将经过严格筛选,择优录取相关专业 Master/PhD,并通过系统化培训及考核后参与进入科研项目组。助教将协助学生进行课题知识的预习和复习,并为学员提供辅助性指导和技术支持。此外,助教将与学生分享自身升学、海外学习和科研等经验,更加贴近学生实际情况,提供辅助性建议。
全面提升多项能力,提高名校录取几率
为来自全球高中生及大学生提供经济便捷的世界顶级学术研讨和实践的参与机会,帮助学培养批判性思维、分析和创造性思维、复杂沟通-口头和书面表达和全球视野,通过深度学习,帮助学生大幅提高申请几率,并向成为国际水平高精尖领域人才和高水平创新人才更近一步。

课程模式

Syllabus
Course Title: The Market for Foreign Exchange: Theory and Practice
This course is designed to give students an understanding of the structure of the foreign exchange market – the world’s largest market by turnover – the theoretical basis for currency movements and the interaction of foreign exchange and macro policy. At the end of the course, students will be familiar with the trading conventions and uses of the major instruments, a basic understanding of methods of forecasting exchange rates, how currency can be used as an investment vehicle, methods and pitfalls of currency exposure and the nature of currency crises. Course projects will be designed to give students some perception of the challenges faced by foreign exchange market professionals.
Tentative Schedule - topics covered
Lecture One: Market Evolution, Structure and Instruments: An overview of the history of global monetary markets – especially the transition from the Gold Standard to Bretton Woods to where we are today – including the evolving role of international institutions and central banks and the regulatory environment. Following this will be a discussion on the structure of the market today including flow chains and the specific instruments that are traded – spot, forwards, futures, options and cross-currency swaps. Will also discuss quoting conventions in these markets and some examples of how rogue traders have been able to game the market – at least temporarily.
Lecture Two: Modeling and Forecasting Exchange Rates: An overview of the process and indicators that I utilized to achieve a twenty plus year career of success at advising clients on foreign exchange outlook. Start with an overview of the traditional drivers of exchange rates – especially real valuation and portfolio flows and, also provide some less traditional indicators I have found useful – relative yield curve flatness, risk sentiment, relative asset valuation. implied volatility skewing.
Lecture Three: Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Crises: An overview of the common forms of exchange rate regimes, including, pegged rates, exchange rate bands, currency boards, dual rates adopting another country’s currency and China’s unique currency arrangment. In each case we will look at what the regime implies for the central bank’s ability to pursue monetary policy and serve as lender of last resort and how regimes can either help or hinder control of inflation. We will also look what these factors portend for the long-term viability of the Euro and how exchange rate regimes can determine the nature of offshore markets – especially deliverable vs non-deliverable forwards – and why roughly 80% of the world’s currencies do not actively trade at all.
Lecture Four: Exchange rates as an asset class: Start with a general discussion of whether foreign exchange meets the definition of an asset class. We will then consider ways that currency exposure can be effectively brought into a broader portfolio. In this context, we will examine the fact that historically uncovered interest rate parity does not generally hold creating a risk-adjusted “excess” return. But this return has diminished substantially in recent years and we will investigate whether this is due to cyclical or secular factors – i.e., is the carry trade dead. We will also look at methods that compare outright carry vs the carry implied by the option skew.
Lecture Five: Trends in exchange rate volatility and methods of trading volatility: We will investigate why there has been a secular downtrend in volatility in foreign exchange markets for much of the past decade. In doing this we will determine the primary drivers of foreign exchange volatility and how they explain the volatility squeeze. We will also see that foreign exchange volatility is prone to spikes when currencies encounter crises. We will look at the general issue of currency crises and the inter-relationship with sovereign debt. Finally, a brief overview of how and why the volatility market in exchange rates is more sophisticated than any other markets with some examples of exotic option structures and the unique ability to trade correlation.
Lecture Six: Accounting Conventions and the Implications for Hedging: Start with a discussion of economic vs accounting exposure; why are they different and what this implies for hedging. Compare the benefits of hedging on a transactional basis vs a portfolio basis. Examining ways to hedge currencies that do not trade and more broadly looking at when proxy hedging makes sense and how to do it. Finally looking at ways to determine when it makes more sense to hedge via options rather than using forwards
Lecture Seven: Case Studies and the Future of Currencies: Using the tools we have
developed over the course we will dig more deeply into some select currency events – e.g., The Asian currency crisis, the Mexican tequila crisis, the ERM crisis, etc. – focusing on ways that these events could have been anticipated and benchmarks signaling an end of the crisis. The prospects for future crises – both when and where (Brexit?) – will be addressed. We will finish with a discussion on the future of currency trading including the role of cryptocurrencies and the US dollar’s continued role as the global currency assessing what could end its reign and what other currencies could rise in its stead Lecture Eight: Evaluation& Final Presentation

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